Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Is Valero Energy Corporation a safe investment right now?
Valero Energy Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 4.99 places it in the safe zone. Our DCF model estimates intrinsic value at $392.49, suggesting the stock may be undervalued by 42%. Moat rating: 2.0/5 stars.
Could Valero Energy Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 4.99 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives VLO's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.137 | 1.2 | 0.16 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.7817 | 1.4 | 1.09 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1972 | 3.3 | 0.65 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 1.125 | 0.6 | 0.67 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 2.407 | 1.0 | 2.41 |
How has VLO's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2.37 | Gray |
| 2017 | 2.35 | Gray |
| 2018 | 3.56 | Safe |
| 2019 | 3.95 | Safe |
| 2020 | 4.17 | Safe |
| 2021 | 4.06 | Safe |
| 2022 | 2.51 | Gray |
| 2023 | 3.66 | Safe |
| 2024 | 5.45 | Safe |
| 2025 | 4.99 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from VLO's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Valero Energy Corporation actually worth?
Fair value range: $132.65 — $870.60
Valuation Methods
| Method | Fair Value | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Historical PE × Forward EPS | $132.65 | 50% | 17.5x avg PE (2 years) × $7.58 forward EPS |
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $870.60 | 30% | Two-stage DCF: $3.7B TTM FCF, 20.0% growth, 7.1% WACC |
| EV/FCF Multiple | $324.91 | 20% | TTM FCF × 28x multiple + net cash |
Assumptions & Data Sources
| Parameter | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| FCF Growth Rate (Stage 1) | 20.0% | 70% analyst consensus + 30% historical |
| Analyst EPS Growth (This Year) | 97.8% | Consensus (18 analysts) |
| Analyst EPS Growth (Next Year) | -17.8% | Consensus |
| Historical 5Y FCF CAGR | 19.5% | SEC EDGAR |
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% | Long-term GDP proxy |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.1% | CAPM (Rf=4.3% + 0.61*5.5%) |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $-7,015M | Balance sheet |
| Base FCF (TTM) | $3.7B | Trailing 12 months |
| Shares Outstanding | 298,953,671 | Latest |
Sensitivity Analysis
| Growth Rate | 8% WACC | 10% WACC | 7.1% WACC | 13% WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | $200.29 | $148.01 | $238.58 | $106.80 |
| 2.5% | $231.88 | $170.04 | $277.24 | $121.46 |
| 5.0% | $268.12 | $195.22 | $321.68 | $138.12 |
| 7.5% | $317.55 | $229.00 | $382.77 | $159.97 |
Free Cash Flow History
| Year | FCF | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | $2.3B | — |
| 2015 | $3.4B | +47.2% |
| 2016 | $2.1B | +-39.4% |
| 2017 | $4.0B | +91.2% |
Source: FCF data from SEC EDGAR filings. Price via Yahoo Finance.
Does Valero Energy Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.0/5.
What makes up VLO's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 1/5.
How stable is VLO's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 15.8% | — |
| 2017 | 16.8% | Stable |
| 2018 | 9.0% | Declining |
| 2019 | 9.0% | Stable |
| 2020 | 11.2% | Rising |
| 2021 | 9.0% | Declining |
| 2022 | -3.9% | Declining |
| 2023 | 4.9% | Rising |
| 2024 | 33.9% | Rising |
| 2025 | 26.6% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Valero Energy Corporation's dividend safe?
Can Valero Energy Corporation afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 59.7%. FCF covers the dividend 6.5x. 41 consecutive years of payments.
Valero Energy Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $144.8B | $176.4B | $64.9B | Rising |
| Net Income | $8.8B | $11.5B | −$1.4B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.0B | $2.1B | $2.3B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 0.5% | 1.1% | N/A | — |
Common questions about Valero Energy Corporation
Is Valero Energy Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
Valero Energy Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 4.99 places it in the safe zone. This metric uses balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within 2 years. A score below 1.8 signals distress, while above 3.0 indicates safety.
What is Valero Energy Corporation's intrinsic value based on DCF?
Our DCF model estimates Valero Energy Corporation's intrinsic value at $392.49 per share. The current margin of safety is 42.4%. This estimate is based on historical free cash flow trends and a risk-adjusted discount rate.
Does Valero Energy Corporation have a competitive moat?
Valero Energy Corporation receives a moat rating of 2.0 out of 5 stars, based on ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and estimated switching costs. A rating above 3.5 suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Is Valero Energy Corporation's dividend safe?
Our dividend safety analysis examines payout ratio, free cash flow coverage, and the company's streak of consecutive dividend payments to determine whether the current payout is sustainable.
Before you invest in Valero Energy Corporation, make sure you truly understand it.
A deep understanding of a company's fundamentals, risk profile, and competitive position dramatically increases your investment accuracy and odds of success.
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 20, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
VLO analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings