Target Corporation (TGT) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores
Is Target Corporation a safe investment right now?
Target Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 2.97 places it in the gray zone. Our DCF model estimates intrinsic value at $112.44, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 16%. Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could Target Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.97 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives TGT's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0233 | 1.2 | -0.03 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.14 | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0988 | 3.3 | 0.33 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 1.0205 | 0.6 | 0.61 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.8593 | 1.0 | 1.86 |
How has TGT's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1.21 | Distress |
| 2017 | 1.14 | Distress |
| 2018 | 3.23 | Safe |
| 2019 | 3.09 | Safe |
| 2020 | 3.07 | Safe |
| 2021 | 2.77 | Gray |
| 2022 | 2.97 | Gray |
| 2023 | 3.3 | Safe |
| 2024 | 2.98 | Gray |
| 2025 | 2.97 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from TGT's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Target Corporation actually worth?
Fair value range: $70.27 — $133.76
Valuation Methods
| Method | Fair Value | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Historical PE × Forward EPS | $133.76 | 50% | 15.7x avg PE (3 years) × $8.52 forward EPS |
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $105.02 | 30% | Two-stage DCF: $2.6B TTM FCF, 7.7% growth, 8.4% WACC |
| EV/FCF Multiple | $70.27 | 20% | TTM FCF × 18x multiple + net cash |
Assumptions & Data Sources
| Parameter | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| FCF Growth Rate (Stage 1) | 7.7% | 70% analyst consensus + 30% historical |
| Analyst EPS Growth (This Year) | 5.5% | Consensus (32 analysts) |
| Analyst EPS Growth (Next Year) | 6.6% | Consensus |
| Historical 5Y FCF CAGR | 11.6% | SEC EDGAR |
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% | Long-term GDP proxy |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.4% | CAPM (Rf=4.3% + 1.03*5.5%) |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $-14,802M | Balance sheet |
| Base FCF (TTM) | $2.6B | Trailing 12 months |
| Shares Outstanding | 452,855,589 | Latest |
Sensitivity Analysis
| Growth Rate | 8% WACC | 10% WACC | 8.4% WACC | 13% WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | $92.07 | $68.04 | $85.97 | $49.09 |
| 2.5% | $106.59 | $78.17 | $99.36 | $55.83 |
| 5.0% | $123.25 | $89.74 | $114.72 | $63.49 |
| 7.5% | $145.98 | $105.27 | $135.61 | $73.54 |
Free Cash Flow History
| Year | FCF | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $2.7B | — |
| 2017 | $4.5B | +68.7% |
| 2018 | $3.9B | +-13.8% |
| 2019 | $4.4B | +13.0% |
| 2020 | $2.5B | +-44.2% |
| 2021 | $4.1B | +66.5% |
| 2022 | $7.9B | +92.6% |
| 2023 | $5.1B | +-35.5% |
| 2024 | $−1.5B | N/A |
| 2025 | $3.8B | N/A |
Source: FCF data from SEC EDGAR filings. Price via Yahoo Finance.
Does Target Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up TGT's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 2/5.
How stable is TGT's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17.8% | — |
| 2019 | 16.1% | Declining |
| 2020 | 14.5% | Declining |
| 2021 | 15.0% | Stable |
| 2022 | 20.4% | Rising |
| 2023 | 26.4% | Rising |
| 2024 | 10.7% | Declining |
| 2025 | 15.4% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Target Corporation's dividend safe?
Can Target Corporation afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 55.6%. FCF covers the dividend 3.4x. 44 consecutive years of payments.
Target Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $107.4B | $109.1B | $93.6B | Rising |
| Net Income | $4.1B | $2.8B | $4.4B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.8B | −$1.5B | $7.9B | Declining |
Common questions about Target Corporation
Is Target Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
Target Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 2.97 places it in the gray zone. This metric uses balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within 2 years. A score below 1.8 signals distress, while above 3.0 indicates safety.
What is Target Corporation's intrinsic value based on DCF?
Our DCF model estimates Target Corporation's intrinsic value at $112.44 per share. The current margin of safety is -15.8%. This estimate is based on historical free cash flow trends and a risk-adjusted discount rate.
Does Target Corporation have a competitive moat?
Target Corporation receives a moat rating of 3.1 out of 5 stars, based on ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and estimated switching costs. A rating above 3.5 suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Is Target Corporation's dividend safe?
Our dividend safety analysis examines payout ratio, free cash flow coverage, and the company's streak of consecutive dividend payments to determine whether the current payout is sustainable.
Before you invest in Target Corporation, make sure you truly understand it.
A deep understanding of a company's fundamentals, risk profile, and competitive position dramatically increases your investment accuracy and odds of success.
Pass the quiz to earn the TGT Certified Value Investor badge.
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 20, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
TGT analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings