Risk Analysis: Is Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. a Value Trap or Safe to Buy?
NYQ · Industrials · Tools & Accessories
Is Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 1.66 places it in the distress zone. Our DCF model estimates intrinsic value at $94.81, suggesting the stock may be undervalued by 21%. Moat rating: 2.5/5 stars.
Could Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 1.66 falls below the 1.8 distress threshold, indicating significant financial stress.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives SWK's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0669 | 1.2 | 0.08 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.3819 | 1.4 | 0.53 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0 | 3.3 | 0.0 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 0.5339 | 0.6 | 0.32 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.7223 | 1.0 | 0.72 |
How has SWK's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 1.15 | Distress |
| 2016 | 1.28 | Distress |
| 2017 | 2.04 | Gray |
| 2019 | 1.37 | Distress |
| 2020 | 1.82 | Gray |
| 2021 | 1.37 | Distress |
| 2022 | 1.12 | Distress |
| 2023 | 1.48 | Distress |
| 2024 | 1.57 | Distress |
| 2025 | 1.66 | Distress |
Source: Calculated from SWK's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. actually worth?
What assumptions go into this valuation?
| Parameter | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| FCF Growth Rate (Stage 1) | 10.8% | 70% analyst consensus + 30% historical |
| Analyst EPS Growth (This Year) | 12.1% | Consensus (14 analysts) |
| Analyst EPS Growth (Next Year) | 16.6% | Consensus |
| Historical 5Y FCF CAGR | 2.6% | SEC EDGAR |
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% | Long-term GDP proxy |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.5% | CAPM (Rf=4.3% + 1.2*5.5%) |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $-6,060M | Balance sheet |
| Base FCF (TTM) | $0.9B | Trailing 12 months |
| Shares Outstanding | 155,286,429 | Latest |
How sensitive is the valuation to growth rate changes?
| Growth Rate | 8% WACC | 10% WACC | 8.5% WACC | 13% WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | $88.60 | $65.48 | $81.38 | $47.24 |
| 2.5% | $102.57 | $75.22 | $94.03 | $53.73 |
| 5.0% | $118.61 | $86.36 | $108.52 | $61.10 |
| 7.5% | $140.48 | $101.30 | $128.21 | $70.77 |
What does SWK's free cash flow history look like?
| Year | FCF | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | $0.5B | — |
| 2016 | $1.0B | +90.4% |
| 2017 | $0.8B | +-16.6% |
| 2019 | $0.2B | +-73.0% |
| 2020 | $0.8B | +240.0% |
| 2021 | $1.1B | +40.6% |
| 2022 | $1.7B | +54.9% |
| 2023 | $0.1B | +-91.4% |
| 2024 | $−2.0B | N/A |
| 2025 | $0.9B | N/A |
Source: FCF data from SEC EDGAR filings. Price via Yahoo Finance.
Does Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.5/5.
What makes up SWK's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 1/5.
How stable is SWK's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 10.4% | — |
| 2014 | 11.4% | Stable |
| 2015 | 10.7% | Stable |
| 2016 | 13.0% | Rising |
| 2017 | 16.2% | Rising |
| 2019 | 13.2% | Declining |
| 2020 | 12.6% | Stable |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 124.5%. FCF covers the dividend 2.5x. 42 consecutive years of payments.
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $15.8B | $16.9B | $12.8B | Rising |
| Net Income | −$0.3B | $1.1B | $1.2B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.9B | −$2.0B | $1.7B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 10.9% | 6.8% | 36.3% | Declining |
Common questions about Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.
Is Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 1.66 places it in the distress zone. This metric uses balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within 2 years. A score below 1.8 signals distress, while above 3.0 indicates safety.
What is Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.'s intrinsic value based on DCF?
Our DCF model estimates Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.'s intrinsic value at $94.81 per share. The current margin of safety is 20.8%. This estimate is based on historical free cash flow trends and a risk-adjusted discount rate.
Does Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. have a competitive moat?
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. receives a moat rating of 2.5 out of 5 stars, based on ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and estimated switching costs. A rating above 3.5 suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Is Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Our dividend safety analysis examines payout ratio, free cash flow coverage, and the company's streak of consecutive dividend payments to determine whether the current payout is sustainable.
Important disclaimer
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 20, 2026. Data may not reflect the most recent quarter if SEC filings have not yet been processed.
SWK analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings