The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Financial Services · Capital Markets
Is The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. a safe investment right now?
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 0.24 places it in the distress zone. Our DCF model estimates intrinsic value at $1139.03, suggesting the stock may be undervalued by 17%. Moat rating: 2.3/5 stars.
Could The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 0.24 falls below the 1.8 distress threshold, indicating significant financial stress.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives GS's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.0915 | 1.4 | 0.13 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0 | 3.3 | 0.0 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 0.1798 | 0.6 | 0.11 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
How has GS's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 0.35 | Distress |
| 2017 | 0.36 | Distress |
| 2018 | 0.34 | Distress |
| 2019 | 0.35 | Distress |
| 2020 | 0.34 | Distress |
| 2021 | 0.29 | Distress |
| 2022 | 0.25 | Distress |
| 2023 | 0.26 | Distress |
| 2024 | 0.23 | Distress |
| 2025 | 0.24 | Distress |
Source: Calculated from GS's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. actually worth?
Fair value range: $797.15 — $1,673.92
Valuation Methods
| Method | Fair Value | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Historical PE × Forward EPS | $797.15 | 50% | 12.2x avg PE (4 years) × $65.34 forward EPS |
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $1,673.92 | 30% | Two-stage DCF: $7.3B TTM FCF, 11.5% growth, 7.0% WACC |
| EV/FCF Multiple | $1,191.38 | 20% | TTM FCF × 22x multiple + net cash |
Assumptions & Data Sources
| Parameter | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| FCF Growth Rate (Stage 1) | 11.5% | 70% analyst consensus + 30% historical |
| Analyst EPS Growth (This Year) | 15.5% | Consensus (20 analysts) |
| Analyst EPS Growth (Next Year) | 10.3% | Consensus |
| Historical 5Y FCF CAGR | 8.1% | SEC EDGAR |
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% | Long-term GDP proxy |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.0% | CAPM (Rf=4.3% + 1.31*5.5%) |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $190,000M | Balance sheet |
| Base FCF (TTM) | $7.3B | Historical avg |
| Shares Outstanding | 294,993,942 | Latest |
Sensitivity Analysis
| Growth Rate | 8% WACC | 10% WACC | 7.0% WACC | 13% WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | $400.47 | $295.95 | $487.43 | $213.54 |
| 2.5% | $463.62 | $339.99 | $566.65 | $242.85 |
| 5.0% | $536.08 | $390.33 | $657.73 | $276.16 |
| 7.5% | $634.93 | $457.88 | $783.06 | $319.85 |
Free Cash Flow History
| Year | FCF | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | $3.6B | — |
| 2019 | $−23.7B | N/A |
| 2020 | $8.6B | N/A |
| 2021 | $15.4B | +79.7% |
| 2022 | $−24.8B | N/A |
| 2023 | $1.6B | N/A |
| 2024 | $5.0B | +204.1% |
| 2025 | $−14.9B | N/A |
Source: FCF data from SEC EDGAR filings. Price via Yahoo Finance.
Does The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.3/5.
What makes up GS's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 2/5.
How stable is GS's return on invested capital?
No ROIC history available.
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 28.3%. FCF covers the dividend 3.3x. 28 consecutive years of payments.
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $8.5B | $11.3B | $9.5B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | −$14.9B | $5.0B | −$24.8B | Rising |
Common questions about The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
Is The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 0.24 places it in the distress zone. This metric uses balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within 2 years. A score below 1.8 signals distress, while above 3.0 indicates safety.
What is The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value based on DCF?
Our DCF model estimates The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value at $1139.03 per share. The current margin of safety is 17.3%. This estimate is based on historical free cash flow trends and a risk-adjusted discount rate.
Does The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. have a competitive moat?
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. receives a moat rating of 2.3 out of 5 stars, based on ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and estimated switching costs. A rating above 3.5 suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Is The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Our dividend safety analysis examines payout ratio, free cash flow coverage, and the company's streak of consecutive dividend payments to determine whether the current payout is sustainable.
Before you invest in The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., make sure you truly understand it.
A deep understanding of a company's fundamentals, risk profile, and competitive position dramatically increases your investment accuracy and odds of success.
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 20, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
GS analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings