Risk Analysis: Is The Boeing Company a Value Trap or Safe to Buy?
NYQ · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Is The Boeing Company a safe investment right now?
The Boeing Company's Altman Z-Score of 1.02 places it in the distress zone. Our DCF model estimates intrinsic value at $82.66, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 172%. Moat rating: 2.0/5 stars.
Could The Boeing Company go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 1.02 falls below the 1.8 distress threshold, indicating significant financial stress.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives BA's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.1977 | 1.2 | 0.24 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.0982 | 1.4 | 0.14 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | -0.0049 | 3.3 | -0.02 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 1.1036 | 0.6 | 0.66 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
How has BA's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1.06 | Distress |
| 2017 | 1.07 | Distress |
| 2018 | 0.92 | Distress |
| 2019 | 1.82 | Gray |
| 2020 | 1.62 | Distress |
| 2021 | 1.21 | Distress |
| 2022 | 0.97 | Distress |
| 2023 | 1.1 | Distress |
| 2024 | 1.0 | Distress |
| 2025 | 1.02 | Distress |
Source: Calculated from BA's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is The Boeing Company actually worth?
What assumptions go into this valuation?
| Parameter | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| FCF Growth Rate (Stage 1) | 20.0% | 70% analyst consensus + 30% historical |
| Analyst EPS Growth (This Year) | -115.2% | Consensus (25 analysts) |
| Analyst EPS Growth (Next Year) | 2511.2% | Consensus |
| Historical 5Y FCF CAGR | -13.4% | SEC EDGAR |
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% | Long-term GDP proxy |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.9% | CAPM (Rf=4.3% + 1.13*5.5%) |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $-27,707M | Balance sheet |
| Base FCF (TTM) | $1.8B | Trailing 12 months |
| Shares Outstanding | 785,844,140 | Latest |
How sensitive is the valuation to growth rate changes?
| Growth Rate | 8% WACC | 10% WACC | 8.9% WACC | 13% WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | $36.09 | $26.67 | $31.12 | $19.24 |
| 2.5% | $41.78 | $30.64 | $35.90 | $21.88 |
| 5.0% | $48.31 | $35.17 | $41.38 | $24.89 |
| 7.5% | $57.22 | $41.26 | $48.79 | $28.82 |
What does BA's free cash flow history look like?
| Year | FCF | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $6.6B | — |
| 2017 | $6.9B | +4.4% |
| 2018 | $7.9B | +14.0% |
| 2019 | $11.6B | +47.2% |
| 2020 | $13.6B | +17.2% |
| 2021 | $−4.3B | N/A |
| 2022 | $−19.7B | N/A |
| 2023 | $−4.4B | N/A |
| 2024 | $2.3B | N/A |
| 2025 | $4.4B | +93.6% |
Source: FCF data from SEC EDGAR filings. Price via Yahoo Finance.
Does The Boeing Company have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.0/5.
What makes up BA's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 1/5.
How stable is BA's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 17.0% | — |
| 2017 | 18.7% | Rising |
| 2018 | 17.3% | Declining |
| 2019 | 28.9% | Rising |
| 2020 | 33.0% | Rising |
| 2021 | -3.0% | Declining |
| 2022 | -22.6% | Declining |
| 2023 | -6.1% | Rising |
| 2024 | -8.5% | Declining |
| 2025 | -1.3% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is The Boeing Company's dividend safe?
The Boeing Company's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $94.0B | N/A | N/A | — |
| Net Income | −$2.2B | −$4.9B | −$11.9B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.4B | $2.3B | −$19.7B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 18.5% | N/A | N/A | — |
Common questions about The Boeing Company
Is The Boeing Company at risk of going bankrupt?
The Boeing Company's Altman Z-Score of 1.02 places it in the distress zone. This metric uses balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within 2 years. A score below 1.8 signals distress, while above 3.0 indicates safety.
What is The Boeing Company's intrinsic value based on DCF?
Our DCF model estimates The Boeing Company's intrinsic value at $82.66 per share. The current margin of safety is -172.3%. This estimate is based on historical free cash flow trends and a risk-adjusted discount rate.
Does The Boeing Company have a competitive moat?
The Boeing Company receives a moat rating of 2.0 out of 5 stars, based on ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and estimated switching costs. A rating above 3.5 suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Does The Boeing Company pay a dividend?
The Boeing Company does not currently pay a regular dividend, or has suspended its dividend. Check the dividend safety section for the latest status.
Important disclaimer
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 20, 2026. Data may not reflect the most recent quarter if SEC filings have not yet been processed.
BA analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings